Coin Metrics analyst Karim Helmi has developed a new methodology for quantifying Bitcoin miners’ stocks that separates the activity of miners and mining pools. This allows them to more accurately estimate the stocks of mined coins at their disposal.
Helmi points out that his approach takes into account the additional 380,000 BTC accumulated ahead of the third halving in May this year. Previous methodologies that measure only the balances of addresses to which rewards for the found block go, these coins were not taken into account.
Исследователь собрал вce aдpeca, получившие oплaту напрямую с coinbase-тpaнзaкций бeз вxoдныx дaнныx, и пометил их как 0-hop (оператор майнинг-пула). Адреса мaйнepoв, пoлучaющиx выплaты с выборки 0-hop, получили маркировку 1-hop.
Helmi draws attention to the relative stability of inflows to 0-hop addresses, as they are generated through block generation rewards. He also points to the volatile nature of outflows, taking into account the past halvings.
The dynamics of inflows / outflows associated with 1-hop addresses is so changeable that it is not possible to clearly identify the moments of halving. Helmi adds that over time, the effect is to weaken their volatility.
According to the analyst’s observations, 2020 is out of the ordinary. Pure 0-hop flows have remained positive for the first time in a long period of time. This became more evident after the third halving.
Based on the gradual fading of net flows associated with 1-hop addresses, Helmi writes about the decline in the impact of Bitcoin miners on the market.
He supports his hypothesis with a graph that demonstrates a decrease in the share of the total supply of coins at the disposal of miners.
The new methodology is not without flaws, Helmi admits.
“Marking of miners and pools based on distance from coinbase-transaction is an incomplete method. Of course, if it is applied to the early state of the network, when solo-mining and alternative pool models were more popular, “the study says.
The analyst believes that his approach could prove useful in discovering partner and hidden mining pools.